BrianWQText

toc//(NOTE: After you add your information to this page, delete the instructions in parenthesis, including this note, so that all that's left is the 4 headers and your information.)// =G.R.A.S.P.S= = = ( Feel free to copy and paste what you have on your wiki page for Dr. Grace for the RASPS portion. For the G--Goal, I need to know the academic goal (the big understanding(s) that you're going for) and the major facet/skill/product. For example, "Students will demonstrate an understanding of how volcanoes are formed by researching and presenting a persuasive argument as to their prediction of where the next volcano will erupt in the world.")
 * **Goal:** First determine which of the following is more probable; an individual player hitting, 3 homeruns in one game, or hitting for the cycle in one game. Second, choose a player pool, Power, Average, or Speed. Then determine within your pool of choice, which player from your pool is most probable to hit 3 homeruns in one game, AND which player from your pool is most probable to hit for the cycle. ||  ||
 * **Role:** You are a statistician for the Boston Red Sox. ||  ||
 * **Audience:** Your General Manager; in order to boost ticket prices, wants to see more three homerun games, and more players hit for the cycle at Fenway. ||  ||
 * You are working at Fenway Park in Boston, Mass. || x ||
 * You will need to create 2 presentations; one, a PowerPoint including excel pages that show proof of your results, and a GarageBand product, no longer than two minutes, describing briefly what your findings were. || x ||
 * **Standards- (Criteria from both rubrics - product and presentation):** Probability and Frequency Presentation; Content 40%, Preparedness 30%, Posture and Eye Contact 10%, Speaks Clearly 5%, Vocabulary 5%, Attire 5% Product- Gave Results- 30%, Professionalism- 25%, Originality- 20%, Confidence- 10%, Use of Sound Effects- 10%, Clarity- 5% || x ||

=Introduction= Baseball is the greatest game ever created, America's pastime. In this web quest you'll be working with Baseball numbers, to produce probability. Obtaining the ability to calculate probability accurately makes somebody almost a fortune teller. Baseball, although it may not seem it, is one of the most predictable games out there, as long as your sample is big enough. So lets do some CALC-U-LATING!

=Task= **__ Official MEMO __** As we all know, ticket sales have been down the last few months. Studies being conducted all around the league have shown that the fans, our ticket buyers, want to see more exciting games, I know this is may be completely obvious, however it would be ridiculous to ignore the evidence that has alluded to the fact that teams with more individual accomplishments in one game, leads to more tickets sold. In light of this new evidence I have proposed this;
 * General Manager Theo Epstein, to members of the statistics department;**

To the analyst that can prove to me; 1) In a single MLB game, which is more probable of taking place; 1. A player hitting three homeruns in one game, or 2. A player hitting for the cycle. 2) Do your calculations on a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. 3) Take a digital screen shot of your calculations and results. 4) Now choose a pool of players that are available for acquisition. 5) Within your pool, determine which player is most likely to hit three homeruns in one game. 6) Withing your pool determine which player is most likely to hit for the cycle in one game. 7) Do your calculations in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. 8) Take a screen shot of your calculations and results. 9) Now using your findings create a garage band sound track that lasts no more than 2 minutes to describe to me which is more probable within the MLB, a three homerun game, or a player hitting for the cycle, and which players are the best candidates to, a. hit three homeruns in one game, and b. hit for the cycle in one game. 9) Send me a voice mail of your garageband so that I can get an early understanding of your results. (I'm away on business) 10) Now using your Excel spread sheets, and any other evidence that will help support your results, create a power point to explain the process you went through to end up with these results. 11) Present the power point to me and the board once I have returned from business trip.
 * $50,000 Bonus; **

Good luck to all, Theo

=Conclusion= Congratulations! You received the $50,000 bonus! What are you going to do?! Though it took some perseverance and some serious whit, you did it! Now if we take our results, and compare it to what happened historically we'll see that the odds of somebody hitting 3 homeruns in one game are almost twice as likely than somebody hitting for the cycle. Baseball, numbers, and history don't lie... Now, obviously every player will have varying odds for either one. Congratulations, now get out of here, go spend some cash!